How Middle East Conflict Is Disrupting Global Air Cargo & India's Supply Chain
The Middle East is currently going through one of its most complex phases of conflict in recent years. What began as tensions between Israel and Gaza has now expanded into a larger regional crisis involving Iran, the United States, and several neighboring countries.
According to shipping data, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have led to a 70% decline in vessel movements since the escalation of the US-Iran conflict. Furthermore, UNCTAD warns that such disruptions can quickly spread through global trade, raising food and basic living costs and increasing pressure on vulnerable economies.
This situation is especially challenging for Asian countries, including India.
India relies heavily on Gulf hubs such as Doha, Dubai, and Abu Dhabi to move air exports to Europe and North America. With routes disrupted and capacity tightening, exporters are now facing longer delays and higher costs.
In this post, we will explore how the current Middle East conflict is disrupting India's most critical cargo corridor and reshaping global air logistics. Read on to know more.
What Is the East–West Air Bridge?
For decades, Gulf aviation hubs have served as the world's logistics crossroads, linking manufacturing centers in Asia with consumer markets in the West.
The importance of this region is reflected in the numbers:
- As per Iata.org, the Middle East accounted for approximately 13.2% of global air cargo activity in January 2026.
- Doha and Dubai rank among the world's largest international cargo transit hubs.
- Gulf hubs such as Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi play a critical role in connecting India's high-value exports, including pharmaceuticals, electronics, and e-commerce shipments, to European and US markets.
Recent Aviation Disruptions at a Glance
Major Airline Disruptions
As per industry news, Qatar Airways (one of the world's largest cargo carriers) reportedly cancelled nearly 89% of scheduled services between February 28 and March 24, while Etihad cancelled over 450 flights in the first weeks of March. Being a major global cargo hub, Doha faced notable network pressure due to reduced flight availability.
Route Suspensions Across Key Carriers
With ongoing tension, Lufthansa and several other international airlines suspended or reduced services to multiple Middle East destinations. In addition, carriers including British Airways, Air France–KLM, and Cathay Pacific have adjusted flight schedules in response to evolving airspace restrictions.
Sharp Decline in Global Air Cargo Demand and Capacity
According to IATA data for March 2026, global air cargo demand (CTK) fell by 4.8%, reflecting weaker trade flows amid ongoing disruptions. Moreover, industry data indicates that global air cargo capacity declined by around 18%, highlighting tightening space availability across key Middle East routes.
Airport Congestion & Operational Pressure
Airport operations across the Middle East have been significantly impacted due to widespread airspace restrictions. Industry sources reveal that Dubai Airports reported a limited resumption of operations from 2 March, while Hamad International suspended all aircraft movements due to the temporary closure of Qatari airspace.
Several countries, including Bahrain, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq, Israel and Saudi Arabia, have imposed full or partial airspace restrictions, affecting flights and cargo movements across the region.
What Does It Mean for India?
The conflict has significantly disrupted Asian aviation by weakening the East–West air corridor and forcing costly rerouting and flight suspensions. As per industry news, Air India reduced West Asia operations and suspended flights to Israel while operating a consolidated schedule to manage capacity.
Furthermore, a hike in oil prices is also creating a major economic impact.
Following strikes on Iran, Brent crude jumped 9.3% to $79.40 per barrel, hitting a 52-week high on supply shock concerns. Analysts also warn that every $10 per barrel rise in oil prices could reduce Asia's GDP growth by 20–30 basis points.
The Ripple Effects: Rising Costs and Supply Chain Disruption
Freight Rates and Fuel Costs Have Surged
The Iran conflict is putting pressure on air cargo pricing and fuel costs. Flexport reported jet fuel prices surged nearly 58% in a week, while Xeneta data also shows February air cargo demand rose 6% YoY, with spot rates up 5% to $2.58/kg and load factor at 62%, reflecting already tight capacity.
Impact on Global Container Shipping Network
According to an Alphaliner analysis by Flexport, the ongoing Middle East conflict directly affects approximately 10.7% of global container fleet capacity, while 124 liner services involving around 520 vessels include at least one Persian Gulf port in their scheduled rotations.
Supply Chain Stability Has Become More Fragile
With airlines and shipping operators adapting to ongoing disruptions, businesses are facing greater uncertainty around transit times and logistics costs. Industry experts warn that prolonged disruption could further strain already fragile global supply chains.
How Is the Logistics Industry Responding?
To maintain supply chain continuity, carriers and freight forwarders are redesigning networks rather than simply rerouting shipments. Istanbul is emerging as a stable alternative hub between Asia and Europe, while Colombo is gaining importance as a secondary transshipment point, helping reduce dependence on congested Gulf gateways like Doha and Dubai.
In addition, many airlines are choosing longer flight paths around restricted airspace to improve schedule reliability. Freight forwarders are increasingly combining multimodal transportation to balance speed and cost. Furthermore, real-time route planning has become crucial for managing costs and navigating rapidly changing geopolitical conditions.
Global trade is not something that can be stopped or reversed, and traders will find an alternative route to ensure trade flows.
Conclusion
The disruption of the East–West air bridge is a reminder that supply chains can change overnight. However, true resilience lies in adapting quickly through smarter routing, multimodal solutions, and proactive planning.
At TGF, we are prepared to navigate uncertainty and help customers keep their supply chains moving without interruption.
Visit our website to know more about our freight forwarding services.